If Fed does not hike in Oct or Dec, stock market will hit the ropes
Outlook: The payrolls disappointment, only 142,000 new jobs when as many as 225,000 was forecast (high end of the Market News forecast range) may or may not mean the Fed is on hold forever. Some think it means QE4. The revisions to the previous two months at 59,000 is okay or at least acceptable, and what is most worrisome is the average earnings flat (after a gain of 0.4% in Aug) and the participation down 0.2 to 62.4%. In other words, a veritable flood of bad news with no succor anywhere in the report. If you think the official unemployment rate remaining at 5.1% is okay, then you are not reading the horror stories about U6. U6 measures those workers who are “discouraged” from job-seeking. In Sept, the U6 fell to 9.6% from 10.3% in August, better
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