Draghi Doveishness Drags EUR Down

Market Commentary ECB President Draghi exceeded doveish expectations, expanding the percentage of outstanding issuance that the ECB can buy from 25% to 33% and sharply lowering inflation forecasts and outlook, EURUSD took out 1.11 falling over a big figure, to trade down to a low of 1.1087. Adding to the doveish read, the decision to downgrade the inflation forecasts and outlook came prior to recent market turmoil. Attention now shifts to todays NFP a weak print should attract demand in EURUSD on a risk sell off. A strong NFP however should propel Euro to fresh lows and back towards the medium term support between 1.08/1.10 GBP continues to find pressure against the USD as domestic data has shown signs of weakness, The UK services

Happy Labor Day

Good Morning Traders, As of this writing 4:10 AM EST, here’s what we see: US Dollar: Down at 96.240 the US Dollar is down 183 ticks and trading at 96.240. Energies: October Crude is down at 46.20. Financials: The Sept 30 year bond is up 22 ticks and trading at 156.21. Indices: The Sept S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 44 ticks and trading at 1935.00. Gold: The October gold contract is trading down at 1123.80. Gold is 2 ticks lower than its close. Initial Conclusion This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil

GBPUSD: Approaching support at 1.5171

Are you trading today? Read the*Forex Trading Strategies for the Day.EUR/USD Breaking support at 1.1236. EUR/USD has broken hourly support at 1.1236 (27/08/2015 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.1332 (01/09/2015 high) and stronger resistance lies at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). In the longer term, the symmetrical triangle from 2010-2014 favored further weakness towards parity. As a result, we view the recent sideways moves

Can the Fed persist in downplaying external conditions?

Outlook:Everything Draghi said yesterday was perfectly reasonable and mostly expected. The part that was a surprise was increasing the proportion of any single issue the ECB is allowed to buy from 25% to 33%, which suggests the ECB is the girding its loins for a long, hard trek. Also, there was maybe a bit more emphasis on the drag being felt and being feared from emerging markets, including China. So, we expected dovish but got dovish squared. With so many expecting a decent payrolls today that will keep alive the expectation of a Sept rate hike, policy divergence is back in vogue. But everyone knows that Aug has a seasonal effect the statisticians have not been able to winnow out—it is often a low number that later gets revised up. Last year the revision

NFP will give hints about USD rate hike

Today’s NFP is released before FOMC meeting 2 weeks later. In latest press conferences FED has stated the importance of all data in the decision to raise interest rates. The problem is that global markets are affected by China stock market but as FED implies – “ it will not have any impact on the rate hike timing “. Now we need to see if employment is still strong , although August tends to be a bit lower with employment numbers, before the revision happens. Technically EURUSD has broken lower below the buffer zone I have warned about some days ago and we can see that the price effectively broke through 1.1100 just to be bought afterwards again up to lower part of BUFFER ZONE (1.1155)-. We cannot know the exact NFP number but technically speaking 1.1155-1170 (H3, DPP,38.2,

EUR/USD: NFP fails, but dollar rises anyway

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1118View Live Chart for the EUR/USD The US headline was a disappointment, with the economy creating just 173K new jobs in August, against expectations of 223K. Unemployment rate however, decreased to 5.1%, the lowest in 7 years, whilst wages rose beyond expected, up to 0.3%. July jobs creation was revised higher to 245K. Overall, the mixed result was not enough to confirm a rate hike in September, neither too bad to deny it, leaving uncertainty at high levels. The dollar however trades generally higher across the board,

Murrey Math Lines: EUR/USD, GBP/JPY

Analysis for September 4th, 2015 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” At the H4 chart, Eurodollar is trying to stay below the 3/8 level. Earlier, Super Trends formed “bearish cross”. It’s highly likely that in the nearest future the pair may continue falling. The closest target is at the 0/8 level. At the H1 chart, the pair is moving below the 3/8 level. The price is supported by Super Trends, which formed “bearish cross” earlier. It’s highly likely that the market


The US economy added only 173k jobs in August missing expectations to have added 220k! The economy added the smallest number of jobs in the last five months. However, the market overshadowed the number easily on the back of the unemployment rate that fell below expectations to a more than 7?year low at 5.1% from 5.3% before. The average hourly earnings on a monthly basis rose by 0.3%, the steepest pace in the last seven months. August’s employment report sends mixed signals for Fed’s interest rate decision in two weeks. The euro has recovered against the dollar after falling

US jobs in focus, ECB ready to expand QE

Forex News and Events US non-farm in the spotlight (by Arnaud Masset) The US non-farm payrolls will be the key event today and will even receive more attention than usual as it will be the last major report, besides the CPI report due on September 16, before the widely anticipated September FOMC meeting. The Committee wants to see higher inflation pressure before raising rates and they are therefore focus on employment and wage growth, mostly. Even though ADP report (released on Wednesday) has historically been a poor predictor of NFPs, we expect a decent NFP report for August or even perhaps lower than median forecast of 217k. One thing is almost certain: a strong report will send the dollar to the sky as traders

Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, Gold

Analysis for September 4th, 2015 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” After a fast decline yesterday, Eurodollar is consolidating. The market hasn’t reached the target of this wave yet. We think, today, the price may reach 1.1024 and then form a correction to return to 1.1360. After that, the pair may continue falling inside the downtrend. GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar” Pound has reached the minimum target of its descending structure. We think, today, the price may form a

Gold Analysis: XAU/USD: Looks to test 1140-1146 levels post ECB

Gold prices in terms of the US dollar (XAU/USD) halted its 5-day rally and ended Wednesday in the red at 1133.13, miring near daily lows at 1132.12. Gold prices eased yesterday as the US dollar kept its upside bias intact amid rebounding global equities, ignoring the below estimates US ADP employment report. The number of Americans employed in the US private sector increased by 190,000 in August, against expectations of 200,000 additions. As noted yesterday, the prices remained supported above the 50-DMA support located at 1130 levels. While the 10-DMA at 1141 levels acted as a strong resistance, capping further upside. As for today’s trade so far, XAU/USD is trading lower, stuck in a tight range of $3, as markets remain cautious ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB)

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis: GBP/USD, Gold

Analysis for September 4th, 2015 GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar” GBP USD, Time Frame H4. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are still influenced by “Dead Cross” (1). Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart, Ichimoku Cloud is going down and widening (2), and the price has reached support from W Kijun-Sen and M Tenkan-Sen. Short-term forecast: we can expect the correction from the above-mentioned levels. GBP USD, Time Frame H1. Indicator signals: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are influenced by “Dead

GBP/USD risks falling under 1.53

Technical Analysis EUR/USD corrects lower to 20-day SMA “Further measures are unlikely given we are only six months into the current program and have another twelve months to go, and there isn’t much central bank policy can do about falling commodity prices, which suggests that ECB President Mario Draghi will try and talk the euro lower simply because he can’t do much else.” - CMC Markets (based on WBP Online) Pair’s

EUR/USD: Draghi's blues

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1126View Live Chart for the EUR/USD ECB's President, Mario Draghi, hammered the EUR by being far more dovish than what the market anticipated, triggering a 100 pips decline in the EUR/USD pair, down to 1.1106 so far today, a fresh 2-week low. The Central Bank lowered its growth and inflation forecasts as anticipated, and increased the issue share limit to 33% from previous 25%, although it will review it on a case-by-case basis. Additionally, the ECB indicated that it could expand its stimulus programs according to needs.

Bounce or Break at EUR/USD's Support Trend Line

EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD has retraced back to the long-term support trend line (green). This could be a hook back for another bullish bounce as indicated in the current wave count. A break of the support trend line would indicate a potential bearish breakout and change the wave structure. 1 hour

Murrey Math Lines: EUR/USD, USD/CAD

Analysis for September 3rd, 2015 EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar” At the H4 chart, Eurodollar is moving in the middle between Super Trends, which may form “bearish cross” in the nearest future. If later the pair breaks the 3/8 level and stays below it, the market will continue falling. At the H1 chart, the pair is trying to stay inside “oversold zone”. Yesterday, Super Trends formed “bearish cross” quite soon. The closest target is at the -2/8 level. If the market breaks it, the

The Trend Trader for Forex

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Daily Forex Chart Art - Sept. 4, 2015

EUR/NZD: 1-hour Not a fan of retracements? Then you might wanna consider this potential reversal play on EUR/NZD’s 1-hour forex time frame. The pair just formed a double top, signaling that a downtrend might be in order. Price has yet to break below the neckline around the 1.7250 minor psychological mark before confirming the potential selloff, which might last by around 700 pips or the same height as the chart pattern. For now, the 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA, suggesting that the uptrend is still intact, but a downward crossover could show that a reversal is in the cards. Stochastic

USD and JPY Strong on Critical NFP Day

EUR/USD 4 hour The US Non-Farm Employment Change together with the unemployment rate will have a high impact on the movements in the Forex market. In yesterday’s trading the EUR/USD broke the key support trend line (dotted green) with a strong bearish momentum candle (close near low). The Fibonacci levels are the potential targets but any movement is very depended on the news event. 1 hour

EURJPY: 134.80 -134.95 on the upside, 131.05-131.20 on the downside

BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 09:00 GMT): EURUSD: 1.1380-1.1395 on the upside, 1.1010-1.1025 on the downside. AUDUSD: 0.7175-0.7190 on the upside, 0.6870-0.6885 on the downside. USDJPY: 122.00-122.15 on the upside, 118.15 -118.30 on the downside. GBPUSD: 1.5370-1.5385 on the upside, 1.5165-1.5180 on the downside. USDCAD: 1.3345-1.3360 on the upside, 1.3035-1.3050 on the downside.

Forex - Chart EUR/JPY Update: Down to pressure 133.31/10 support

Published at 01:28 (GMT) 04 Sep ** 04 Sep EUR/JPY Daily Break of the 134.68 low resumes the drop from the 139.00

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