SPY and Oil in Upside Lockstep Again, Despite Bearish Oil Headlines

Despite headline bearish news from Saudi Arabia over the weekend, NYMEX Crude Oil continues to grind higher, towards another challenge of key resistance. Perhaps geopolitical concerns elevated by Russia's (Putin's) adventurism in Syria is impacting oil? Putin does have a vested interest in driving oil prices higher, right?

NZD Overview: Are the Bulls Finally in Charge?

Last week was relatively positive for the Kiwi Dollaras a range of US economic data proved weaker than expected. The US NFP was highly negative, coming in at 142k (202k exp) whilst Average Hourly Earnings also fell to 0.0% m/m. The NZD Subsequently rose higher and managed to finish the week around the 0.6450 level. However, the week ahead will prove critical for the venerable currency as it prepares to be largely dominated by the US unemployment rate and Non-Manufacturing PMI results. The next few days will see the Kiwi Dollar focused upon the US labour market as the Unemployment Claims figures fall due. The market will be closely watching the results from this indicator, for some sort of signal as to the US Federal Reserve’s intent in the coming FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD Forecast: More worries for BOE, Eyes 1.51 levels

The GBP/USD pair rose to an intraday high of 1.5244 levels in the European session before turning lower on the back of a disappointing UK services PMI report. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS UK Services Business Activity Index fell to to 53.3, from August’s 55.6, indicating the weakest rate of growth since April 2013. The rate of expansion in new business slowed for the fifth time in six months in September. Flurry of weak data ahead of BOE minutes The Bank of England rate decision on Thursday will be immediately followed

EURGBP: 0.7435-0.7450 on the upside, 0.7250-0.7265 on the downside

BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 09:00 GMT): EURUSD: 1.1310-1.1325 on the upside, 1.1040-1.1055 on the downside. AUDUSD: 0.7155-0.7170 on the upside, 0.6970-0.6985 on the downside.USDJPY: 121.30-121.45 on the upside, 118.70 -118.85 on the downside. GBPUSD: 1.5255 -1.5270 on the upside, 1.5055-1.5070 on the downside. USDCAD: 1.3330-1.3345 on the upside, 1.6950-1.6965 on the downside.

Triangle Formations Prove Robustness in Forex Majors

EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is expanding the wave 2 (brown) correction unless price is able to break away from the current average and sideways zone. 1 hour The EUR/USD price action remains stuck in between support (green) and resistance (red) trend

FX Board: Silver streaks higher as EUR takes a dive

EURUSD support at 1.12 in focus Silver surges to top of three-month range AUD soft ahead of RBA meeting Silver grew wings today as the commodity currencies (save the AUD) rallied and the EUR battled higher before taking an ungraceful dive. Today's key FX developments

Euro and Pound lower as investors haven't lost faith in the bullish Dollar

A smooth start for the week yesterday in the currency markets but with enough price action to show us that volatility is expected to remain elevated this week as well. After the important miss of the US jobs report on Friday the major money markets are now adjusting to the new levels of expectations regarding Fed’s rate policy and the outlook of the major currencies. Even though the NFP report missed its mark on Friday and as a result the Dollar posted losses across the board the US currency managed to claw back some of these losses during the first session of the week. The buck was back in charge against the Euro and the Pound mainly due to two reasons: bearish fresh reports from the Eurozone and the UK and sustained confidence from investors on the broader outlook of

Gold Analysis - XAU/USD: Could take-out 100-DMA resistance on dismal US trade data?

The XAU/USD pair (gold prices in terms of the US dollar) rallied to fresh two-week highs at 1142.06 levels on Monday, extending its effort to conquer the downward sloping 100-DMA located at 1144.50 levels. The prices found the catalyst in the worse-than expected US ISM non-manufacturing PMI report, which dragged the greenback lower. The US services sector data reported by ISM showed a drop to 56.9 versus 58.0 estimates. The data added to the recent streak of weak US fundamentals, thus raising concerns over US economic outlook and further dropping expectations of the Fed rate hike this year. The prices quickly retraced from highs and ended the day slightly in the red at 1135.80, below the key Fib 61.80% (last week’s fall) level located at 1136.52. As for today’s trade

GBPUSD: What To Expect This Week!

In our previous analysis "GBPUSD: Short-term Elliott Wave Perspective", the alternate count expected downwards movement and Cable confirmed the alternate count and fell short of the specified target by 10 pips before reversing directions and moving upwards in a corrective manner. This week`s main count expects Cable to unfold downwards sharply in an impulsive manner, while the alternate count expects Cable to continue moving upwards to complete a second wave. As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Main Count - Invalidation Point: 1.5658 - Confirmation Point: 1.5107 - Downwards

EUR/USD still unable to violate 1.1260

Technical Analysis EUR/USD still unable to violate 1.1260 “The failure of the economy to pick up speed over the summer will be a disappointment to the ECB, especially with job creation sliding to an eight-month low.” - Markit (based on Bloomberg) Pair’s Outlook There have been four attempts to breach the 1.1260 mark (50% retracement) since Sep 24. However,

Daily Technical Analysis

Current level - 1.1191 The intraday bias is bearish again after the recent slide through 1.1210, for a break through 1.1150, en route to 1.1012 area. Crucial on the upside is 1.1290.

EURGBP: Risk Remains Lower Below The 0.7421/42 Zone

EURGBP: With the cross turning off the 0.7442 level the past week to close slightly higher on rejection candle, further downside pressure is envisaged. It gave up its intra day gains to close flat on Monday leaving risk of further move lower. This view remains valid below the mentioned resistance zone. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7400 level where a violation if seen will turn risk towards the 0.7450 level. On further upside, the 0.7500 level comes in as the next upside target followed by the 0.7550 level. Conversely, support lies at the 0.7350 level where a violation will turn focus to the 0.7300 level. A break will expose the 0.7250 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.7200 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside long term.

EUR/USD: heading towards the base of its range

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1179View Live Chart for the EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.1288 during the European opening, but gave up over 100 pips afterwards, with no certain catalyst behind the move, but a steady advance in worldwide stocks. Investors continued trading in the light of the latest US NFP report, as the poor result of the country's inflation figures of September, fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve won't be able to raise rates this 2015. As for macroeconomic data, figures were soft both in Europe and the US, with

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Daily Forex Chart Art - Oct. 5, 2015

GBP/USD: 4-hour Careful, pound bears! The range support on Cable’s 4-hour forex chart seems to be holding as a floor, with a bullish divergence already in play. See how price formed lower lows while stochastic drew higher lows? This suggests that a bounce back to the top of the range at the 1.5820 level or at least until the mid-range area of interest at 1.5450 is possible. However, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA and isn’t showing any intention of making an upward crossover anytime soon, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In that case, a downside break

EURUSD: 1.1310-1.1325 on the upside, 1.1065-1.1080 on the downside

BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 09:00 GMT): EURUSD: 1.1310-1.1325 on the upside, 1.1065-1.1080 on the downside. AUDUSD: 0.7115-0.7130 on the upside, 0.6960-0.6975 on the downside. USDJPY: 120.70-120.85 on the upside, 118.85 -119.00 on the downside. GBPUSD: 1.5295 -1.5310 on the upside, 1.5035-1.5050 on the downside. USDCAD: 1.3335-1.3350 on the upside, 1.3020-1.3035 on the downside.

GBP/USD Forecast: Relief rally unlikely to last long

The GBP/USD pair rose to an intraday high of 1.5237 levels in the NY session on Friday after the horrible US non-farm payrolls number pushed the 2015 Fed rate hike bets out of the window. The US economy created only 142,000 jobs in September, which is 64,000 short of the consensus estimates. The average earnings data disappointed coming in at 0.0% month-on-month. The net revision for the previous two months was down 59,000. The USD quickly suffered a broad based weakness, but managed to take back prt of its losses heading into the weekend. Fed rate hike bets

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Build Bullish Momentum

EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD bounced at the trend line (green) for a wave X (blue) and rallied during NFP up to the resistance trend line (red) and 61.8% Fibonacci target. 1 hour The EUR/USD showed an ABC rally (green) and respected the Fib level neatly.

USD/JPY stuck between the monthly PP and 20-day SMA

Technical AnalysisEUR/USD fails to consolidate at 1.13 after NFP “For the euro to fall below $1.08, there has to be something that challenges the integration of the common currency.” - Mizuho (based on Bloomberg) Pair’s Outlook EUR/USD's rally on Friday was halted by the 1.13 level, which turned to be a very significant resistance for the cross. Therefore,

NFP Doesn't Stop Markets

Good Morning Traders, As of this writing 4:10 AM EST, here’s what we see: US Dollar: Down at 95.785 the US Dollar is down 182 ticks and trading at 95.785. Energies: October Crude is up at 45.83. Financials: The Dec 30 year bond is down 1 tick and trading at 158.25. Indices: The Dec S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 16 ticks and trading at 1947.00. Gold: The October gold contract is trading down at 1135.70. Gold is 9 ticks lower than its close. Initial Conclusion This is not a correlated market. The dollar

Gold Analysis - XAU/USD: Takes out key Fib 61.80% level, rally to resume towards 100-DMA

The XAU/USD pair (gold prices in terms of the US dollar) experienced massive moves on Friday in response to the crucial US non-farm payrolls data which surprised markets to the downside. The prices bounced-off key support just ahead of 1100 barrier and spiked nearly $ 40 to fresh weekly highs at 1141.32 after the US dollar was smashed across the board as the NFP reflected a big miss (142k vs. 201k expected) and squashed hopes of Fed rate-hike this month or in this year, while every meeting remains live. The pair halted its five-day losing streak and jumped in a bid to test the 100-DMA then located near 1145, although failed to garner further supported and retraced to 1137.94 at close. However, the prices booked losses on weekly closing basis. As for today’s trade so far,

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