Can the Fed persist in downplaying external conditions?

Outlook:Everything Draghi said yesterday was perfectly reasonable and mostly expected. The part that was a surprise was increasing the proportion of any single issue the ECB is allowed to buy from 25% to 33%, which suggests the ECB is the girding its loins for a long, hard trek. Also, there was maybe a bit more emphasis on the drag being felt and being feared from emerging markets, including China. So, we expected dovish but got dovish squared. With so many expecting a decent payrolls today that will keep alive the expectation of a Sept rate hike, policy divergence is back in vogue. But everyone knows that Aug has a seasonal effect the statisticians have not been able to winnow out—it is often a low number that later gets revised up. Last year the revision
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